China Takes Pole Position, Ahead Of USA, In Capgemini Global Trade Index
Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index Highlights Cautious Growth
in Q2 2010 Concentrated in Asia and Latin America rs.
Capgemini Consulting, the global strategy and transformation consulting brand of the Capgemini Group, has announced figures from the fourth edition of its Global Trade Flow Index*, which tracks trade by quarter based on the latest available official data (related to import and export of goods and services) from national agencies of the 23 top countries in terms of global trade.
The report outlines continuing strength in trade flows in Q2 2010 growing by 3.6 percent, even if weaker than the 5 percent trade growth noticed in Q1 2010.
China, in particular, witnessed a surge of 19 percent as compared to the previous quarter (Q1 2010), leading it to take over from the United States as number one in overall trade volume. The report highlights cautious optimism in global trade, with concerns remaining over the impact of the withdrawal of stimulus measures through Q3 and into Q4 2010.
For Q2 2010, the report outlines continued confidence based on trade in raw materials, specifically relating to demand in Asia-Pacific, and in relation to the export of manufactured goods, particularly from Germany and Mexico.
China continued to surge ahead of global averages, growing by 19 percent in Q2 2010 compared to Q1 2010, due to robust domestic consumption and a significant jump in industrial production; Australian exports rose by a massive 20 percent in Q2 2010 due to a pick-up in demand for raw materials, particularly iron and coal. In contrast, economic growth in the US has slowed in Q2 compared with Q1 2010 (GDP growth rate declined from 1.2 percent in Q1 2010 to O.9 percent in Q2 2010). While US international trade has increased in volume (5.2% percent q-o-q growth in Q2 2010), imports have continued to outpace exports leading to sustained trade deficits (- 49 Billion USD in June 2010).
In addition to the trade in raw materials, global trade during Q2 2010 was also fuelled by the export of manufactured goods. Mexico’s exports rose by 5.3 percent due to the sale of automotive parts to the United States. Germany continued to outperform the Eurozone area, with trade growing by 9.4 percent, supported by exports particularly to Asia (cars, machinery and equipments for plants, chemical products) and due to the depreciation in the value of the euro.
Previous Global Trade Index reports have drawn parallels across the BRIC countries, but the Q2 2010 edition demonstrated differences between these economies’ trade flows. Brazil witnessed continued growth in Q2 2010, with trade increasing by 7.8 percent compared to the previous quarter, due to steady growth in agriculture and services sector exports. In contrast, both India and Russia saw overall contraction in trade volumes. Import and export growth contracted in India during Q2 2010 by 1.4 percent compared to Q1 2010, where domestic consumption also dropped by 5 percent. Russia, meanwhile, had a reduction in total trade volume of 4 percent compared to Q1 2010 driven by weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports.
“Capgemini Consulting expects world trade to continue with modest growth in Q3 2010 but there are several major risks for the near-term global trade outlook. All eyes will be on monetary and fiscal policy in the coming months, and whether growth will be limited by the withdrawal of stimulus measures. We have seen increased trade as inventories of manufactured goods are re-stocked and fuel exports, but it is unclear whether this is merely temporary respite, rather than the foundation for sustained recovery. Unemployment remains high, while the euro remains weak, which underlines our ongoing concern with regard to trade imbalances in the Eurozone area,” explained Roy Lenders, Vice President Supply Chain Management at Capgemini Consulting.
APPENDIX - Capgemini Consulting Global Trade Flow Index
(extract of the ranking with the 13 leading countries)
///Country |
RANK / Q2-2010 |
RANK / Q1-2010 |
Trade Volume Score (A) |
Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) |
Foreign Market Score (C) |
Domestic Market Score (D) |
Global Trade Index Score* |
China |
1 |
2 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
16.00 |
United States |
2 |
1 |
3.77 |
3.53 |
3.36 |
3.66 |
13.27 |
Germany |
3 |
3 |
2.62 |
3.33 |
3.56 |
3.69 |
9.24 |
Japan |
4 |
4 |
1.68 |
3.32 |
3.43 |
3.60 |
5.78 |
France |
5 |
5 |
1.26 |
3.25 |
3.37 |
3.67 |
4.33 |
Netherlands |
6 |
6 |
1.24 |
3.35 |
3.38 |
3.73 |
4.32 |
South Korea |
7 |
9 |
1.05 |
3.57 |
3.51 |
3.73 |
3.80 |
United Kingdom |
8 |
7 |
1.07 |
3.35 |
3.32 |
3.70 |
3.68 |
Italy |
9 |
8 |
1.04 |
3.35 |
3.45 |
3.65 |
3.62 |
Canada |
10 |
11 |
0.92 |
3.53 |
3.29 |
3.67 |
3.21 |
Belgium |
11 |
10 |
0.90 |
3.25 |
3.39 |
3.63 |
3.09 |
Mexico |
12 |
14 |
0.70 |
3.56 |
3.43 |
3.71 |
2.50 |
Russian Fed. |
13 |
12 |
0.72 |
3.22 |
3.44 |
3.45 |
2.43 |
Copyright©2010 Capgemini- All rights reserved
Note: Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D))
A full copy of the report can be downloaded here.
